Exit polls predict return of Congress government in Haryana with big win over BJP

NEW DELHI: The Congress is likely to wrest Haryana from the BJP with the exit polls predicting over 50 seats for the grand-old-party in the 90-member assembly. If the exit poll predictions prove true on October 8, when the votes are counted, the Congress will see the return of its government in the state after a gap of 10 years. The BJP, which ruled the state for the last 10 years, could be staring at a defeat with the exit polls predicting around 30 seats for the saffron party.

Most of the exit polls have predicted a good show by the Congress in the state. Matrize has predicted 55 to 62 seats for the Congress, while the ruling BJP could get only 18 to 24 seats. According to People's Pulse, Congress may get 49 to 61 seats while the BJP may end up with 20 to 32 seats. Dainik Bhaskar predicts 44 to 54 seats for Congress in Haryana and 15 to 29 seats for the BJP. Dhruv Research has given 50 to 64 seats to the Congress and 22-32 seats to the BJP.

The Congress has been confident about its prospects in these assembly elections after its success in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in which the grand old party had wrested 5 Lok Sabha seats from the BJP and increased its voteshare from 28.4% in 2019 to 43.67%. In fact, the Congress had improved its performance in the 2019 assembly elections itself when the party increased its tally to 31 seats from 15 it had won in 2014. The party's vote share also saw an increase from 20.5% to 28% during the period. The Congress's best performance in the state was in 2005 when it had won 67 seats.

On the other hand, the BJP's prospects in the state has been on a decline since the 2019 assembly elections, when it failed to win a majority in the state and was forced to form a coalition government. The party, which had stormed to power in the state in 2014 winning 47 seats with a vote share of 33.2%, was restricted to 40 seats in 2019. This despite the fact that the saffron party's vote share had marginally increased to 36.49%. The BJP eventually formed a coalition government with the help of Dushyant Chautala's JJP to retain power in the state for second term. The saffron party made a course correction ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha elections replacing Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini as the state's chief minister in March this year. However, the move did not help much as the BJP suffered a setback and was reduced to 5 Lok Sabha seats from 10 in 2019. Its vote share saw a huge dip from 58% in 2019 to 46.11%.