Heading into the 2024 Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party ( BJP) appears to be at a disadvantage, with signs of anti-incumbency becoming more apparent, as reflected in exit polls on Saturday.
Multiple exit polls released this evening, following voting in Haryana, predict the Congress reclaiming power in the state. The national party is likely to secure 55-62 seats in the 90-member assembly, at least nine seats clear of the majority mark. Meanwhile, the BJP is projected to win 18-24 seats, a sharp decline from the 40 it secured five years ago.
In the 2019 assembly elections, the Congress won 31 seats, the BJP 40, and the JJP 10, with the BJP and JJP forming an alliance to govern the state.
In this election, the Congress left the Bhiwani assembly seat for its INDIA bloc partner CPI(M), while the BJP did not contest the Sirsa seat, where Haryana Lokhit Party chief Gopal Kanda is seeking re-election.
Most constituencies are expected to witness a direct contest between the BJP and Congress. Key candidates include Chief Minister Saini (Ladwa), Leader of Opposition Hooda (Garhi Sampla-Kiloi), INLD's Abhay Singh Chautala (Ellenabad), JJP's Dushyant Chautala (Uchana Kalan), BJP's Anil Vij (Ambala Cantt), Capt Abhimanyu (Narnaund), O P Dhankar (Badli), AAP's Anurag Dhanda (Kalayat), and Congress's Vinesh Phogat (Julana).
What do these results mean?
Exit poll predictions suggest that the Congress is poised to return to power in Haryana after a decade in opposition. This would mean the Congress has wrested another state from the BJP, following its recent victories in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh.
The Congress-led INDIA bloc is now expected to control four states versus the BJP’s 12, despite the saffron party's earlier win in Odisha, ensuring a net zero loss for the BJP. However, the Congress appears to be gaining momentum as it prepares for the 2029 general elections.
Another state under the INDIA bloc could spell trouble for the BJP, which is holding power at the Centre through a coalition with the Telugu Desam Party, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), and Janata Dal (United).
In the 2024 general elections, the BJP won only 240 seats, a 63-seat drop from 2019, while the Congress gained 99 seats, a 47-seat jump. The BJP managed to maintain its pre-poll coalition, with regional parties adding 53 seats to help the NDA form the government. Meanwhile, the INDIA bloc secured 234 seats, with the Congress becoming the main opposition in the Lok Sabha.
Where does the Congress stand?
With the Congress already in power in Karnataka, Telangana, and Himachal Pradesh, and in alliances in Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand, and Delhi, the party has regained its footing after being significantly weakened just five years ago, when it suffered a major defeat in the Lok Sabha elections and state polls.
With elections still to be held in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, the INDIA bloc has a chance to further increase its influence by dislodging the Eknath Shinde-led NDA government in Maharashtra.
What may have contributed to the BJP's potential loss?
Farmer protests
The introduction of controversial farm laws in 2020 sparked widespread protests, particularly among farmers from Haryana and Punjab. The Singhu border between Delhi and Haryana became the focal point of these protests. The BJP government in Haryana played a key role in managing the unrest, and its actions, including police measures to prevent protests from spilling into the national capital, have left a sour taste among many farmers, potentially contributing to the BJP’s decline in the state.
Agniveer recruitment
The Agniveer recruitment scheme for the armed forces has also stirred discontent. Despite efforts by the government to placate opposition by offering paramilitary and other government jobs, dissatisfaction with the scheme remains widespread.
Wrestlers’ protests
The BJP's treatment of wrestler Vinesh Phogat, a vocal critic of the party, could further hurt its chances in Haryana. Phogat is now contesting for the Congress, alongside fellow wrestler Bajrang Punia. Given Haryana's deep-rooted wrestling culture, both athletes could play a significant role in swaying voter sentiment toward the INDIA bloc.
Multiple exit polls released this evening, following voting in Haryana, predict the Congress reclaiming power in the state. The national party is likely to secure 55-62 seats in the 90-member assembly, at least nine seats clear of the majority mark. Meanwhile, the BJP is projected to win 18-24 seats, a sharp decline from the 40 it secured five years ago.
In the 2019 assembly elections, the Congress won 31 seats, the BJP 40, and the JJP 10, with the BJP and JJP forming an alliance to govern the state.
In this election, the Congress left the Bhiwani assembly seat for its INDIA bloc partner CPI(M), while the BJP did not contest the Sirsa seat, where Haryana Lokhit Party chief Gopal Kanda is seeking re-election.
Most constituencies are expected to witness a direct contest between the BJP and Congress. Key candidates include Chief Minister Saini (Ladwa), Leader of Opposition Hooda (Garhi Sampla-Kiloi), INLD's Abhay Singh Chautala (Ellenabad), JJP's Dushyant Chautala (Uchana Kalan), BJP's Anil Vij (Ambala Cantt), Capt Abhimanyu (Narnaund), O P Dhankar (Badli), AAP's Anurag Dhanda (Kalayat), and Congress's Vinesh Phogat (Julana).
What do these results mean?
Exit poll predictions suggest that the Congress is poised to return to power in Haryana after a decade in opposition. This would mean the Congress has wrested another state from the BJP, following its recent victories in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh.
The Congress-led INDIA bloc is now expected to control four states versus the BJP’s 12, despite the saffron party's earlier win in Odisha, ensuring a net zero loss for the BJP. However, the Congress appears to be gaining momentum as it prepares for the 2029 general elections.
Another state under the INDIA bloc could spell trouble for the BJP, which is holding power at the Centre through a coalition with the Telugu Desam Party, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), and Janata Dal (United).
In the 2024 general elections, the BJP won only 240 seats, a 63-seat drop from 2019, while the Congress gained 99 seats, a 47-seat jump. The BJP managed to maintain its pre-poll coalition, with regional parties adding 53 seats to help the NDA form the government. Meanwhile, the INDIA bloc secured 234 seats, with the Congress becoming the main opposition in the Lok Sabha.
Where does the Congress stand?
With the Congress already in power in Karnataka, Telangana, and Himachal Pradesh, and in alliances in Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand, and Delhi, the party has regained its footing after being significantly weakened just five years ago, when it suffered a major defeat in the Lok Sabha elections and state polls.
With elections still to be held in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, the INDIA bloc has a chance to further increase its influence by dislodging the Eknath Shinde-led NDA government in Maharashtra.
What may have contributed to the BJP's potential loss?
Farmer protests
The introduction of controversial farm laws in 2020 sparked widespread protests, particularly among farmers from Haryana and Punjab. The Singhu border between Delhi and Haryana became the focal point of these protests. The BJP government in Haryana played a key role in managing the unrest, and its actions, including police measures to prevent protests from spilling into the national capital, have left a sour taste among many farmers, potentially contributing to the BJP’s decline in the state.
Agniveer recruitment
The Agniveer recruitment scheme for the armed forces has also stirred discontent. Despite efforts by the government to placate opposition by offering paramilitary and other government jobs, dissatisfaction with the scheme remains widespread.
Wrestlers’ protests
The BJP's treatment of wrestler Vinesh Phogat, a vocal critic of the party, could further hurt its chances in Haryana. Phogat is now contesting for the Congress, alongside fellow wrestler Bajrang Punia. Given Haryana's deep-rooted wrestling culture, both athletes could play a significant role in swaying voter sentiment toward the INDIA bloc.
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