In the fourth phase of elections in Uttar Pradesh, there are 13 seats at stake, with five being reserved constituencies , the highest in any phase.
In the 2019 elections, BJP secured victories in all five reserved seats , garnering over 50% of the total votes cast across these constituencies. However, this year, there's a split opinion on whether BJP will maintain its dominance in all seats. Some Dalit scholars and observers of backward politics suggest that the ruling party may experience a decline in support.
Badri Narayan , a specialist in Dalit politics , suggests that although Dalit votes may be fragmented among various candidates, the party enjoying support from other communities will likely secure victory.
"Traditionally, BSP does not do well in reserved constituencies as the Dalit vote gets divided among the candidates. This year, however, BSP has worked hard and may add 5-7% more votes to its kitty," he said, further noting that BSP chief Mayawati's questioning of the party's existence in this election has garnered stronger support from Jatavs. He said that some Dalit votes may also go to the INDIA bloc but there is non-Jatav mobilisation in favour of BJP.
"The recent attempts at polarisation are likely to have worked, especially among Valmikis and Pasis, so BJP may still pull off all five seats," he said.
Others believe that the concern over the Constitution and the fear that BJP might amend it if re-elected, an issue the Opposition is vehemently highlighting against the ruling party, has become deeply ingrained in the minds of backward and scheduled caste communities, influencing their voting decisions. They argue that this is reflected in the shift in BJP's campaign strategy from development to majority politics. Ravikant, associate professor at the Hindi department of Lucknow University, suggests that BJP could potentially lose up to 70% of the backward vote that propelled it to power in the 2019 elections.
"This is a segment which looks at social engineering and is not moved by Hindu-Muslim issues," said Ravikant, adding that the Samajwadi Party's selection of candidates this time has bolstered its support, even though Dalits are typically cautious about voting for the SP.
"Valmikis and Sonkars among Dalits may vote on religious lines but not others. The only mistake made by the INDIA bloc members, SP and Congress, is that no tickets were given to people from the Kori and Dhobi communities. That said, SP has still given tickets to many other Dalit communities, of which there are 66 in UP, and very less to Yadavs," he said.
Professor MP Ahirwar from Banaras Hindu University states that for the first time in the last decade, he perceives BJP to be on the defensive. Nonetheless, he asserts that BJP's setback will translate into gains for BSP.
"We are not hearing of 'Modi Guarantee' anymore and the discourse has moved to Hindu-Muslim politics. This is not cutting ice with Dalits, except for maybe a couple of communities. The election this time is on jobs and inflation, not religious politics. The fear of the Constitution being changed, in whatever way, of reservation under threat, is a bigger worry for Dalits. We are looking at a triangular fight where BSP is likely to be the biggest gainer," he said.
In the 2019 elections, BJP secured victories in all five reserved seats , garnering over 50% of the total votes cast across these constituencies. However, this year, there's a split opinion on whether BJP will maintain its dominance in all seats. Some Dalit scholars and observers of backward politics suggest that the ruling party may experience a decline in support.
Badri Narayan , a specialist in Dalit politics , suggests that although Dalit votes may be fragmented among various candidates, the party enjoying support from other communities will likely secure victory.
"Traditionally, BSP does not do well in reserved constituencies as the Dalit vote gets divided among the candidates. This year, however, BSP has worked hard and may add 5-7% more votes to its kitty," he said, further noting that BSP chief Mayawati's questioning of the party's existence in this election has garnered stronger support from Jatavs. He said that some Dalit votes may also go to the INDIA bloc but there is non-Jatav mobilisation in favour of BJP.
"The recent attempts at polarisation are likely to have worked, especially among Valmikis and Pasis, so BJP may still pull off all five seats," he said.
Others believe that the concern over the Constitution and the fear that BJP might amend it if re-elected, an issue the Opposition is vehemently highlighting against the ruling party, has become deeply ingrained in the minds of backward and scheduled caste communities, influencing their voting decisions. They argue that this is reflected in the shift in BJP's campaign strategy from development to majority politics. Ravikant, associate professor at the Hindi department of Lucknow University, suggests that BJP could potentially lose up to 70% of the backward vote that propelled it to power in the 2019 elections.
"This is a segment which looks at social engineering and is not moved by Hindu-Muslim issues," said Ravikant, adding that the Samajwadi Party's selection of candidates this time has bolstered its support, even though Dalits are typically cautious about voting for the SP.
"Valmikis and Sonkars among Dalits may vote on religious lines but not others. The only mistake made by the INDIA bloc members, SP and Congress, is that no tickets were given to people from the Kori and Dhobi communities. That said, SP has still given tickets to many other Dalit communities, of which there are 66 in UP, and very less to Yadavs," he said.
Professor MP Ahirwar from Banaras Hindu University states that for the first time in the last decade, he perceives BJP to be on the defensive. Nonetheless, he asserts that BJP's setback will translate into gains for BSP.
"We are not hearing of 'Modi Guarantee' anymore and the discourse has moved to Hindu-Muslim politics. This is not cutting ice with Dalits, except for maybe a couple of communities. The election this time is on jobs and inflation, not religious politics. The fear of the Constitution being changed, in whatever way, of reservation under threat, is a bigger worry for Dalits. We are looking at a triangular fight where BSP is likely to be the biggest gainer," he said.
