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How Iran avoided escalation with Israel through quick military maneuvering

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In a recent flare-up between Iran and Israel, where both nations exchanged missile and drone strikes, tensions soared, hinting at the potential for a broader conflict. However, the situation de-escalated as quickly as it escalated, with Iran making a strategic move to replace a destroyed air defense radar, thus avoiding further provocation and managing to save face on the international stage, a report in the Economist said.

On April 13, for the first time in its history, Iran directly launched a barrage of drones and missiles toward an Israeli air base, which was met with a precise Israeli counterstrike. In response, the Israeli missiles on April 19 targeted and destroyed a critical piece of Iranian air defense, the 30n6e2 "Tombstone" radar , located near the heavily fortified Natanz nuclear complex. This radar is essential for tracking incoming air threats and guiding interceptor missiles.

Following the Israeli retaliation, new satellite imagery analyzed by Chris Biggers, a former imagery analyst at America’s National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, revealed that Iran had swiftly replaced the destroyed "Tombstone" radar with a different model, the 96l6e "Cheese board" radar. This radar was placed in the exact location of the previous one, and the missile launchers appeared ready for action. Biggers noted that this switch was likely a tactic of "denial and deception," aimed at portraying the site as still operational, despite the replacement radar's incompatibility with the existing defense system, the Economist report said.

This quick substitution by Iran served multiple strategic purposes:
  • By swiftly replacing the radar, Iran aimed to maintain its defensive posture and readiness, at least in appearance, to deter further Israeli strikes.
  • The replacement allowed Iranian propagandists to claim operational readiness and resilience, thereby managing domestic and international perceptions.
  • Most critically, by not responding further and instead quickly repairing the site, Iran avoided a potential escalation that could have drawn in more regional players and possibly led to a full-scale war.
Khamenei tacitly acknowledges that Tehran hit little in its attack on Israel
Meanwhile, during a meeting with Iran's top military leaders, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei , Iran's supreme leader, downplayed the effectiveness of a significant drone-and-missile attack on Israel, subtly admitting that the assault didn't achieve its intended impact. Despite the substantial scale of the attack, Khamenei emphasized that the number of missiles that hit their targets was not a priority.

Khamenei's remarks, which were broadcast on state television, came in the context of heightened tensions between Iran and Israel, particularly as conflicts continue in the Gaza Strip. He said, “Debates by the other party about how many missiles were fired, how many of them hit the target and how many didn’t, these are of secondary importance. The main issue is the emergence of the Iranian nation and Iranian military’s will in an important international arena. This is what matters.”

(With inputs from agencies)
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