John Swinney's SNP could plunge to just nine MPs in Scotland, new polling shows. Analysis by pollster Mark McGeoghegan for the Centre on Constitutional Change based on all polling so far north of the border gave a doomsday scenario for the Scottish Nationalists, who were the third largest party in terms of numbers of seats in the House of Commons.
If the SNP loses every tight constituency, described by the pollster as "toss-up" seats, then it may be left with just nine MPs, with tactical voting potentially pivotal for the party.
Mr McGeoghegan told the Scottish Daily Express: "Toss-ups are seats with less than 65 percent consensus on what party will win there. Six of these are Labour-SNP contests, three are SNP-Conservative contests, and one is a Labour-SNP-Conservative contest."
He said analysis shows 32 seats for Labour, 18 SNP, Scottish Conservatives two and Scottish Liberal Democrats, five. However, under a scenario where parties lose all the "toss ups" and marginals they were predicted to win, the outcome would be: Labour on 25, SNP on just nine, Scottish Conservatives on zero and Scottish Liberal Democrats on five.
Another poll published on Tuesday (July 2) shows Labour slipping behind the SNP. A survey by Savanta for The Scotsman suggests 31 percent of Scots could vote Labour on Thursday, three points down on the last poll, while support for the SNP is unchanged at 34 percent.
According to analysis from Professor Sir John Curtice, Labour, which won just one seat north of the border in the 2019 election, is on course for 22 Scottish MPs while the SNP would keep 24 seats.
The poll, which was carried out between June 28 and July 2, suggests the Scottish Conservatives are on 15 percent, up one point, while the Scottish Liberal Democrats are at nine percent, up two points on the last poll earlier in June.
The latest poll of 1,083 Scottish adults found six percent said they would back Reform UK, no change since the last poll, while the Greens were up one point at three percent, and two percent said they would vote for other parties.
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta, said: "Our final Scottish voting intention before July 4 suggests the SNP is ahead of Labour, showing a modest improvement and potentially blunting their losses on election night.
"If our results were reflected on polling day, John Swinney's election as SNP leader looks like it will have come just in the nick of time.
"That being said, Labour's efficient vote, in particular around the central belt, will still mean it's likely going to be a very good evening for Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer.
"Their majority is no longer dependent on Scotland, but they'll want to squeeze the SNP as much as they can."
