In the realm of Chinese social media and WeChat, a new phrase, " garbage time of history," has gained traction, resonating deeply with the current sentiments of economic stagnation and societal despair. This term, coined by essayist Hu Wenhui in 2023, draws an analogy from sports, where "garbage time" refers to the final moments of a game when the outcome has already been decided.
Hu’s concept suggests that modern China, like a team in a losing game, seems to be merely running out the clock rather than progressing meaningfully.
In a revealing commentary on the state of the Chinese economy, the “2024 misery ranking grand slam” has gained popularity, tallying up misery points that reflect the challenges faced by individuals this year. The ranking system assigns points based on various hardships, starting with unemployment as the first star.
To reach two stars, one must add mortgage burdens, while a full suite of eight stars requires individuals to also factor in debt, childrearing, stock trading, illness, unfinished housing, and even the act of hoarding Moutai, a well-known brand of baijiu (sorghum liquor).
China's Economic Downturn
As China confronts its most significant economic downturn in decades, the term has taken on a life of its own, reflecting widespread disillusionment with the nation's trajectory under President Xi Jinping. The term critiques the current state of affairs, casting a pall over the vision of a prosperous "Chinese century" that was once imagined.
According to Minxin Pei, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, “Many in China are convinced their country is trapped in a similarly futile dead end, its prospects unlikely to brighten as long as its direction remains unchanged.” This sentiment is echoed in conversations across social media, revealing a pervasive lack of optimism.
Economic Challenges Faced by Citizens
The roots of this pessimism are evident in the challenges facing the Chinese economy. A severe collapse in the real estate sector has undermined the middle class, eroding wealth and curtailing consumer spending. Mortgage debt has become a significant burden for millions of households, with rising unemployment, particularly among young people, exacerbating financial anxieties. The resulting “negative wealth effect” has diminished financial security, leading to decreased consumption and further entrenching the economic malaise.
In response to these difficulties, China announced a broad range of stimulus measures aimed at supporting the faltering economy, stabilizing the housing sector, and restoring market confidence. Following the announcement, stocks and bonds saw a significant uptick, reflecting market reactions to government interventions.
A Shift in Societal Attitudes
However, the malaise extends beyond mere economic metrics. Unlike the late 1990s, when China faced even worse economic conditions yet maintained optimism due to faith in reformist leaders like Zhu Rongji, today’s centralized leadership under Xi Jinping has stifled hope for meaningful change. Pei remarks, “The phrase ‘garbage time of history’ thus is a thinly veiled dig at Xi’s open-ended rule, implying that this sorry state of affairs will not change as long as he stays in power.”
This rising sentiment reflects a broader cultural shift among younger generations in China. Many youths are adopting a mentality of resignation, finding it increasingly difficult to envision upward mobility in a hyper-competitive society.
Terms such as "lying flat," which denotes a rejection of societal pressures to achieve, have gained popularity as younger individuals confront diminishing prospects. The tragic suicide of a young investment banker, reportedly overwhelmed by financial pressures, underscores the societal struggles that have become emblematic of this despair.
Government Pushback
The Chinese state has reacted strongly to the viral spread of Hu Wenhui’s concept. State media has swiftly denounced the term as defeatist, with the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party's Beijing branch publishing a rebuttal titled “‘History’s Garbage Time’? True or False?” This article categorically dismissed the phrase, labeling it a “false proposition not worth refuting.”
Other state-backed commentators, such as Wang Wen, executive dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University, criticized the term as more dangerous than the "lying flat theory," arguing it completely denies China's current development progress.
A Critical Juncture for the CCP
As China stands at a critical juncture, it is essential to reflect on historical precedents. The current situation draws parallels with the Soviet Union under Leonid Brezhnev, where stagnation marked a prolonged decline. Pei notes, “The CCP surely doesn’t want to meet the same fate. To avoid it, Xi and the party will have to rethink their game plan.”
As the term "garbage time of history" encapsulates a moment of reckoning in China, citizens continue to grapple with economic uncertainty and a shifting societal landscape. The path that the nation chooses in response to these challenges will significantly impact its future trajectory amid growing discontent and calls for reform.
[With inputs from agencies.]
Hu’s concept suggests that modern China, like a team in a losing game, seems to be merely running out the clock rather than progressing meaningfully.
In a revealing commentary on the state of the Chinese economy, the “2024 misery ranking grand slam” has gained popularity, tallying up misery points that reflect the challenges faced by individuals this year. The ranking system assigns points based on various hardships, starting with unemployment as the first star.
To reach two stars, one must add mortgage burdens, while a full suite of eight stars requires individuals to also factor in debt, childrearing, stock trading, illness, unfinished housing, and even the act of hoarding Moutai, a well-known brand of baijiu (sorghum liquor).
China's Economic Downturn
As China confronts its most significant economic downturn in decades, the term has taken on a life of its own, reflecting widespread disillusionment with the nation's trajectory under President Xi Jinping. The term critiques the current state of affairs, casting a pall over the vision of a prosperous "Chinese century" that was once imagined.
According to Minxin Pei, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, “Many in China are convinced their country is trapped in a similarly futile dead end, its prospects unlikely to brighten as long as its direction remains unchanged.” This sentiment is echoed in conversations across social media, revealing a pervasive lack of optimism.
Economic Challenges Faced by Citizens
The roots of this pessimism are evident in the challenges facing the Chinese economy. A severe collapse in the real estate sector has undermined the middle class, eroding wealth and curtailing consumer spending. Mortgage debt has become a significant burden for millions of households, with rising unemployment, particularly among young people, exacerbating financial anxieties. The resulting “negative wealth effect” has diminished financial security, leading to decreased consumption and further entrenching the economic malaise.
In response to these difficulties, China announced a broad range of stimulus measures aimed at supporting the faltering economy, stabilizing the housing sector, and restoring market confidence. Following the announcement, stocks and bonds saw a significant uptick, reflecting market reactions to government interventions.
A Shift in Societal Attitudes
However, the malaise extends beyond mere economic metrics. Unlike the late 1990s, when China faced even worse economic conditions yet maintained optimism due to faith in reformist leaders like Zhu Rongji, today’s centralized leadership under Xi Jinping has stifled hope for meaningful change. Pei remarks, “The phrase ‘garbage time of history’ thus is a thinly veiled dig at Xi’s open-ended rule, implying that this sorry state of affairs will not change as long as he stays in power.”
This rising sentiment reflects a broader cultural shift among younger generations in China. Many youths are adopting a mentality of resignation, finding it increasingly difficult to envision upward mobility in a hyper-competitive society.
Terms such as "lying flat," which denotes a rejection of societal pressures to achieve, have gained popularity as younger individuals confront diminishing prospects. The tragic suicide of a young investment banker, reportedly overwhelmed by financial pressures, underscores the societal struggles that have become emblematic of this despair.
Government Pushback
The Chinese state has reacted strongly to the viral spread of Hu Wenhui’s concept. State media has swiftly denounced the term as defeatist, with the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party's Beijing branch publishing a rebuttal titled “‘History’s Garbage Time’? True or False?” This article categorically dismissed the phrase, labeling it a “false proposition not worth refuting.”
Other state-backed commentators, such as Wang Wen, executive dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University, criticized the term as more dangerous than the "lying flat theory," arguing it completely denies China's current development progress.
A Critical Juncture for the CCP
As China stands at a critical juncture, it is essential to reflect on historical precedents. The current situation draws parallels with the Soviet Union under Leonid Brezhnev, where stagnation marked a prolonged decline. Pei notes, “The CCP surely doesn’t want to meet the same fate. To avoid it, Xi and the party will have to rethink their game plan.”
As the term "garbage time of history" encapsulates a moment of reckoning in China, citizens continue to grapple with economic uncertainty and a shifting societal landscape. The path that the nation chooses in response to these challenges will significantly impact its future trajectory amid growing discontent and calls for reform.
[With inputs from agencies.]
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