Pollster John Curtice explains key factor behind exit poll showing Labour landslide and Tory wipeout

The exit poll for the 2024 general election is in and, if it proves to be correct, will mean a wipeout for the Conservative Party across large swathes of the UK, as well as a landslide for the Labour Party who could end up with a whopping 410 seats. But, as always with election data, the true picture of what has changed with the electorate is far more complex than one side beating the other.

Top pollster John Curtice has begun his all-night stint explaining the election results as they come in for the BBC and has been examining the data from the exit poll, which was conducted by broadcasters and released as polls closed at 10pm. While it has been a transformative night for Labour, who could gain 209 MPs in one night, the veteran poll expert has said the Conservatives could end up with the worst result in their history.

Explaining the most "crucial" thing to understand about the exit poll, Sir John Curtice said: "This seat forecast is not just simply a consequence of the national shares of the vote that we expect the parties to gain, but rather how they are distributed geographically and how that has moved decisively against the Conservatives."

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"Support for the Conservatives is falling much more heavily in places where they are trying to defend the seat, than it is in seats that Labour already hold, but why is that happening? It's not because Labour are doing spectacularly better in Conservative-held seats, it is because Reform are.

"Much of the damage to the Conservatives is being done by Reform, even if it is the Labour Party that proves to be the beneficiary."

This shock result could be a sign of a demographic shift in Labour voters, with them winning more heavily in areas where there are a large number of people with mortgages, previously a strong voter base for the Tories. Curtice said this could be "a reflection perhaps of the damage caused by former prime minister Liz Truss’s 'fiscal event'.“

The polling expert also pointed out that the Liberal Democrat plan to heavily target certain seats appears to have worked, with them forecast to gain 52 new MPs, despite getting a lower vote share than Reform, who could end up with 13 seats in parliament after crushing the Conservative vote.

However, the pollster did have a note of caution for the forecasts for the smaller parties, stating that many of the seats are on a knife edge. While the exit poll shows a large number of new MPs for Nigel Farage's party, they could end up with fewer as in many places they have a "20 to 30 per cent chance" of winning.

As ever the only poll that matters is the one which the British public cast their vote in on Thursday, with the final picture of the country's new political landscape Or, as Sir John Curtice put it: "It's only the ballot boxes that tell us the truth."

The exit poll, released at 10pm, forecasts the following seat totals for the major parties:

• Conservatives: 131
• Labour: 410
• Liberal Democrats: 61
• SNP: 10
• Reform UK: 13
• Plaid Cymru: 4
• Greens: 2